Devigger Help Guide


Quick Tips:

- A comma separates legs
- A "/" symbol separates sides of a market
- The first number in a leg is the side of the market you are wagering on.
- If a leg has multiple sides in its market (ie: superbowl winner), then separate all sides by a "/" symbol like this: +500/+250/+2000


Video Tutorials:

@TheeDegenBoosts on Twitter and YouTube is making video tutorials for the devigger.
As well as, @EVBetsMA on Twitter made a tutorial for the Combo Breaker.

Check them out here:

  1. Devigger Tutorial Part 1 - Intro
    • Covers the basics like normal 2-way devigs, boosts, devig methods, free bet EV conversions, parlays and multi-way pre-made markets
    • Twitter Link - YouTube Link

  2. Devigger Tutorial Part 2 - Correlation

  3. Devigger Tutorial Part 3 - Functions: AVG, MAX, MIN, HIT

  4. Devigger Tutorial Part 4 - Comments, Sharing Devigs, Implied EV%, Juice Estimation, INT Function

  5. Devigger Tutorial Part 5 - OR operators
    • Covers how to use the different OR operators for mutually exclusive and independent events
    • Twitter Link - YouTube Link

  6. Combo Breaker Tutorial Part 1 - Basics


SGP Correlation Tips:

If you have a SGP that is for DeRozan to score 30+ points and DeRozan's team, the Bulls, to cover -9.5 spread, there is a positive correlation and SGP odds reflect that. You can use the devigger to place all combinations of a SGP to estimate fair odds with correlation like:
1. DeRozan 30+ and Bulls -9.5 = +180
2. DeRozan 30+ and Heat +9.5 = +250
3. DeRozan <30 and Bulls -9.5 = +390
4. DeRozan <30 and Heat +9.5 = +260
Plug that into the leg odds box like so: 180/250/390/260
It will output the fair odds of DeRozan 30+ points and Bulls to cover -9.5 spread, taking into account the positive correlation between the 2 legs.


Juice Tips:

- If you only have one side of a market, you can specify the juice amount and the app will calculate fair odds based on the juice you specify.
To Specify juice, simply format like so: +285/15%

- If you have a similar market from that sportsbook that you'd like to derive the juice from and use that market's juice,
To Derive juice from another market, simply format like so: +285/[-116/-106]

- If a sportsbook has both a 2-way and a 1-way alt-line for a betpoint (ie. Over/Under 34.5 and 35+), you can then derive the juice% being applied to the other alt-lines.
To Derive juice from the alt-line market, simply format like so: -270/[-135=-110/-110]
Where:
-110/-110 is 2-way line for Over/Under 34.5
-135 is the same book's juiced alt-line for 35+
-270 is the line you want to devig and is the juiced alt-line for 30+

- If you'd like to simply let the devigger estimate the juice% of a 2-way market, simply do:
+600/%
It will estimate the juice% based on historical odds for moderately juiced 2-way markets (like player props)


A Site Won't Let Me Highlight Or Select Its Odds:

Copying the odds for a multi-way devig or for a combo breaker devig can save a lot of time/typing. Some sites have selection of certain text disabled.
For the sites that have it disabled, you can drag and drop this bookmarklet to your bookmark bar:
CNM - Enable Select

When you are on the site that you want to select/copy odds from, simply click on the bookmark. It will enable that page to now be allowed to select text again.


Mutually Exclusive Events (XOR) All-Way:

- If you have a bet on a single event, like a Nascar race, and the bet is for either Player X OR Player Y OR Player Z to win, you can format like so:
+500^+800^+1000/1200/1600/2000
In this example, there are 6 total race car drivers and you need X, Y, or Z to win. Notice that the "^" symbol combines those sides of the market so that only one needs to win. Other sides of the market should be separted by a "/" as normal. 

Note, this is mutually exclusive because there can be only one winner, not two.


Mutually Exclusive Events (XOR) 2-Way:

- If you have 2 separate markets for the Nascar race winner instead of an outright market, you can do this:
+500/-700 = 2-way market for "Player X"
+800/-1300 = 2-way market for "Player Y"
+1000/-1800 = 2-way market for "Player Z"
+500/-700^^+800/-1300^^+1000/-1800

But note that when doing this method (^^), I recommend you use additive/shin instead of multiplicative or power methods.
This is because if you were to devig for ANY driver to win to win the race like this:
+500/-700^^+800/-1300^^+1000/-1800...etc for all drivers in the race
Then, when you summed up all of the fair value percentages, multiplicative would be over 100% (for any driver to win the race), power method would be below 100% and additive/shin would be around 100%. For this reason, additive/shin should be more accurate when devigging mutually exclusive events when using the "^^" symbols on 2-way markets

Note, this is mutually exclusive because there can be only one winner, not two.


Independent Events (OR):

- If you have a bet on multiple events and you only need one of them to hit, such as either Player X to get 25+ points OR Player Y to get 10+ rebounds, you can format like so:
-115/-110||-185/+140
Notice that instead of a ",", we used a "||" to establish that either of these 2 events can hit in order to win our bet. You can, of course, add other legs that are also "||" and you can also add other legs that are "," to specify that they must hit, such as Player X to score 25+ points OR Player Y to get 10+ rebounds, AND their team to win the game.
Events separated by a "||" are independent events and both could win, both could lose, or either could win/lose. As long as one of them wins, then the combined legs will count as a win.


Mutually Exclusive (XOR) VS Independent Events (OR) Tips:

A quick summary of when to use the different operators:

  • ^ = Replaces a '/' symbol
  • ^^ = Replaces a ',' symbol. Only one of the 2 should be able to hit (like a Nascar Race)
  • || = Replaces a ',' symbol. Both of the 2 should be able to hit (like either player to get 10+ points)


Fair value:

- If you already have the fair value odds for something, for example you know something is fair value of +200, you can simply put +200 without any "/" symbol(s). It will assume the other side of the market is -200.


Correlation Textbox Warning:

Be aware that using the method below to derive correlation from a SGP is not exact because of SGP's extra juice.
The correlation textbox assumes there is no extra juice added to a SGP (on top of the normal lines' juice). So, one thing to keep in mind with the correlation textbox, is that if a book adds extra juice to their SGP, then the correlation textbox will see that as positive correlation (when in reality, it is just extra juice).

For example, if you have -110,-110 in a SGP. Without correlation, the SGP would be:
+264. +264=-110,-110 //This would return r=0

With positive correlation of r=0.04 it might be +250:
+250=-110,-110 //This would return r=0.04

But also, if a book decides to add some extra juice to the SGP, on top of the normal lines' juice, then it could also have odds of +250, even though there should have been no positive correlation. Because of this, the normal 4/6/8 way SGP devig method is still the preferred way to devig a SGP. But it is, of course, not practical (or even possible) for a 5+ leg SGPs, or for SGPs without an under.


Correlation Textbox:

Please read the above warning before or after reading the below guide on the correlation textbox.
- If you can't do every combination of a SGP to derive correlated fair odds, you can use the correlation textbox.
- If you already know the correlation coefficient that you like'd to apply to your parlay, simply type it in like, "0.2"
a value of 1 would be 100% positive correlation (if one hits, the other will hit). A value of -1 would be 100% negative correlation (if one hits, the other can't hit).
- If you don't already know the correlation coeficient, you can derive it by supply the SGP odds and that sportsbook's one-sided odds for each leg.
For example, let's say we are doing a SGP for Chiefs to win and Travis Kelce to score a touchdown.
FanDuel has only one side for Travis to score a touchdown and we don't have 2 sides to the market.
We know that Chiefs are a -210 on FD and Travis Kelce is a -135 to score a touchdown.
Their SGP together is +134
We can provide the correlation box with:
+134=-210,-135
It will then derive the correlation coefficient from the sportsbook and apply it to the devig's fair odds.

If you were to bet 2 uncorrelated odds that were -210 and -135, the parlay would be +157.
The SGP above at +134 is lower (and lower payout) because Chiefs and Travis Kelce have positive correlation.
Since they are positively correlated, it is more likely to hit and thus the odds/payout is lower.

You can use FD or DK's SGP to derive correlation and then use a sharp book like Pinny in the Leg Odds box as the actual odds to devig.

If you have 2 legs that are correlated, but a 3rd leg that isn't correlated, you can simply write it out as above and the  devigger will figure it out. Such as:
Leg Odds Textbox: +125/-130,+150/-180,-200/170
Correlation Textbox: +300=+125,+150
The devigger will see that the correlation textbox only has 2 legs and connect those to the first 2 legs in the Leg Odds textbox.
You must keep them in the same order in both textboxes for the legs you want to be correlated.

You can have multiple correlations by separating them by a ";" symbol. Such as:
Leg Odds Textbox: +125/-130,+150/-180,-200/+170,-165/+140
Correlation Textbox: +300=+125,+150;+120=-200,-165
The devigger will see the order in both textboxes and match them based on the order.

You can also specify correlation manually for a certain number of legs. Such as:
Leg Odds Textbox: +125/-130,+150/-180,-200/+170
Correlation Textbox: 2=0.13
This tells the devigger to correlate the first 2 legs in the LegOdds textbox with an r  of 0.13

You can also specify multiple correlations manually for a certain number of legs. Such as:
Leg Odds Textbox: +125/-130,+150/-180,-200/+170,-165/+140
Correlation Textbox: 2=0.13;2=0.41
This tells the devigger to correlate the first 2 legs in the LegOdds textbox with an r  of 0.13, and the next 2 legs with an r of 0.41

You can mix and match the above correlation options by simply separating them by a ";". Such as:
Leg Odds Textbox: +125/-130,+150/-180,-200/+170,-165/+140
Correlation Textbox: +300=+125,+150;2=0.41
This tells the devigger to derive the correlation for the first 2 legs in the LegOdds textbox, and then set the next 2 legs to be correlated with an r of 0.41


Boosts:

If you have a profit boost on a site and you are trying to find the best bet to use it on.
Your Final Odds can be your unboosted odds and you can simply use the "Boost" checkbox to apply your boost percentage.
If it is a profit boost, choose "Profit Boost". If it is boosting the entire wager (such as BetMGM sometimes does), then choose "All".
This saves you time from having to continue to adjust the Final Odds textbox and adjusting it to be the boosted odds.

You can also perform basic math in the Boost textbox. So, MGM boosts the entire bet but the boosted winnings is returned as a free bet. If you have a 100% MGM boost and can convert at 70% free bet conversion, you'd check the "All" boost option, and then in the boost textbox, type: "100%*70%".


Market Average Function:

If you have multiple lines that you'd like to use, you can average them to get a market average. For example, let's say that:
FanDuel has Bengals at -150 and Saints at +135.
DraftKings has Bengals at -145 and Saints at +125
You can use them as you normally would by simply including each side in an average. See below:
AVG(-150,-145)/AVG(+135,+125)
Optionally, you can label each side to keep things more organized.
AVG(Bengals:-150,-145)/AVG(Saints:+135,+125)
Notice that the ":" symbol ends the name and begins the odds.

You can use AVG anywhere you normally would have provided a single number. Such as for a 3 way moneyline in which you need a team to win or draw:
DraftKings has Arsenal -185, Draw +350, Leeds +500
FanDuel has Arsenal -180, Draw +343, Leeds +536
AVG(Arsenal:-185, -180)^AVG(Draw:+350,+343)/AVG(Leeds:+500,+536)
Notice that the XOR "^" symbol above works as normal.

You can also use it to market average one side and estimate juice on the other side(s):
AVG(-500,-450,-550)/10%

You can also do it for ATTD if you have one over/under and a lot of one way markets:
Leonard Fournette ATTD
DraftKings -125
FanDuel -110
SuperBook -136/+102
AVG(Fournette ATTD:-125,-110,-136)/+102
OR Doing the same but instead of using the +102, simply using the 2 way market's juice% to estimate the Under 0.5 TD:
AVG(Fournette ATTD:-125,-110,-136)/[-136/+102]


Market Median Function:

The Median Function is the same as the Average Function above, except that it takes the median of a set of odds.
When supplied an odd set of numbers, it will choose the middle value.
When supplied an even set of numbers, it will average the middle 2  values.

The advantage of the Median Function over the Average Function is that it factors out outliers and mistake lines.
This makes it useful in automation to not allow a mistake line from making both sides of a bet look +EV.
For manual devigging, however, AVG() is still likely better, as it includes more data points. And mistake lines are easy to spot when manually devigging.


MIN/MAX Functions:

Similar to the AVG function above, you can also use the MAX and MIN functions in the same format.
Such as:
MAX(-500,-450,-550)
would return  the maximum/longest odds, being -450

And:
MIN(-500,-450,-550)
would return  the minimum/shortest odds, being -550


Alternate Function Format:

For AVG(), MED(), MAX() and MIN(), there is an alternate format that you can choose to use.

For a 3-way moneyline, you may have 3 books that you want to average:
DraftKings = 100/200/300
FanDuel = 101/201/301
Caesars = 102/202/302
All in the format of: //TeamAWin/TeamBWin/Draw

Normally, you may write in the devigger:
AVG(100,101,102)/AVG(200,201,202)/AVG(300,301,302)//TeamAWin/TeamBWin/Draw

With the alternate format, you can also choose to write it like:
AVGb(100/200/300, 101/201/301, 102/202/302)

This alternate format using the AVGb() function will return the same result as our AVG() function above.
You can also use this format for 4-way SGPs. It might be easier to add additional books with this format.
But be aware that the order does matter.

You can also label each book like:
AVGb(DK: 100/200/300, FD: 101/201/301, CZR: 102/202/302) //TeamAWin/TeamBWin/Draw

If you have a book that is missing a side of the market, you can simply insert an "x" in place of the odds for that book's missing side.
For example, pretend we were missing DraftKings' Draw market above, we could simply write:
AVGb(DK: 100/200/x, FD: 101/201/301, CZR: 102/202/302) //TeamAWin/TeamBWin/Draw

The alternate format functions are:
AVGb(), MEDb(), MAXb(), MINb()


HIT Function:

You can supply a hit% and have it converted  to American Odds for you.

Simply:
HIT(50%)
returns +100

You can use it anywhere you'd use American Odds (in the Leg Odds textbox).

You can also perform some basic math in the Hit() function. So, if something has historically occurred 18/61 times this season, you could simply type HIT(18/61) and it will be the same as HIT(29.5%), which is the same as +239 fair value.


Linear Interpolation Function:

If you need for a player to have over/under 299.5 passing yards, and you only have 294.5 and 319.5, you can simply use the INT() function to linearly interpolate what 299.5 odds would be.

Example #1:
Over 294.5 = -220
Over 319.5 = -130
Desired is  Over 299.5
INT(299.5;294.5=-220,319.5=-130)
This would return  -197 odds. This is between -220 and -130, being closer to -220 since it is 299.5 is closer to the 294.5

You can also do this for anywhere you would normally put odds in the Leg Odds textbox.
Example #2:
Over 294.5 = -220
Over 319.5 = -130
Under 294.5 = 180
Under 319.5 = 105
Desired is  Over/Under 299.5
INT(299.5;294.5=-220,319.5=-130)/INT(299.5;294.5=180,319.5=105)
This would return -197/+161
You can do the above and then also use the correlation checkbox to apply correlation to these legs.

You can also do it for something like a 4-way SGP devig:
Example #3:
Pretend we have a boost that is "Patrick Mahomes to Pass for 300+ Yards and Chiefs to Win vs Raiders"
Chiefs win and Over 294.5 = -120
Chiefs win and Over 319.5 = +120
Chiefs win and Under 294.5 = +230
Chiefs win and Under 319.5 = +150
Raiders win and Over 294.5 = +475
Raiders win and Over 319.5 = +575
Raiders win and Under 294.5 = +950
Raiders win and Under 319.5 = +700
INT(299.5;294.5=-120,319.5=+120)/INT(299.5;294.5=+230,319.5=+150)/INT(299.5;294.5=+475,319.5=+575)/INT(299.5;294.5=+950,319.5=+700)
This would return -112/+210/+493/+888

You can also use this function in the correlation textbox
Example #4:
Chiefs win and Over 294.5 = -120
Chiefs win and Over 319.5 = +120
Chiefs win leg = -425
Over 294.5 leg = -220
Over 319.5 leg = -130
INT(299.5;294.5=-120,319.5=120)=-425,INT(299.5;294.5=-220,319.5=-130)
This would return -112=-425,-197 for the correlation textbox

You an also use the AVG() function with the INT() function like so:
Example #5:
You want to average the Over 300+ line from DK and FD.  FD has the exact 300+ line. But DK only has the 294.5 and 319.5.
We can interpolate the DK lines and then average that in with the FD line.
FD Over 299.5 = -210
DK Over 294.5 = -220
DK Over 319.5 = -130
AVG(-210, INT(299.5;294.5=-220,319.5=-130))
returns AVG(-210, -197)
returns -203


Multi-line Textbox and Comments:

If you would like to write notes about a devig, you can do so in the LegOdds textbox.
Simply write "//" and anything followed by "//" on a line will be ignored by the devigger.
For example:
-110/-110//Devigged vs Pinny

You can enable the multi-line textbox for LegOdds textbox at the bottom of the devigger page, as a setting.
You can change the width/height of the multi-line textbox by dragging the bottom right corner of it.

After doing this you can organize your devig with new lines and comments.
For example:
//Lakers and Celtics to both win, FD boost
-300/200,//Lakers ML (Pinny)
-500/390//Celtics ML (Pinny)

On the above multi-line LegOdds textbox, notice that we still must provide the "," on the 2nd line to tell the devigger it is a parlay. The devigger will simply ignore comments and combine the multi-lines into a singleline.

You can also do multi-line  comments by starting with "/*" and ending the multi-line comment with "*/".
For example:
//Lakers and Celtics to both win, FD boost
-300/200,//Lakers ML (Pinny)
-500/390//Celtics ML (Pinny)
/*
Additional details or notes on the devig
could go here and you can do it on
multiple lines to more freely type.
*/

You can also write comments in the FinalOdds, Correlation and Boost textboxes (but no multi-line for those boxes).


Implied EV%:

You can supply an EV% and the devigger will derive what the fair value is and calculates your Kelly Wager.

Simply type in the leg odds textbox:
EV=5%
And in the Final Odds textbox, supply a normal American Odds (no daily fantasy syntax/format)

This is useful if you see a play that someone shared and  they mention the EV% but not the fair odds.
Now you can use the EV% they supply in order to calculate it and figure out what Kelly Wager is recommended.


Implied Kelly:

You can supply Kelly Units and the devigger will derive what the fair value is and calculates your Kelly Wager and EV%.

Simply type in either of the 3 kelly units into the textbox:
FK=4.76 // Full Kelly
HK=4.76 // Half Kelly
QK=4.76 // Quarter Kelly
And in the Final Odds textbox, supply a normal American Odds (no daily fantasy syntax/format)

This is useful if you see a play that someone shared and  they mention the Kelly Units but not the fair odds.
Now you can use the Kelly Units they supply in order to calculate it and figure out what Kelly Wager is recommended.


Final Odds Format:


The normal Final Odds format is to simply supply American Odds (like +300).
But there is a much more robust format that can be utilized for devigging everything from promos to daily fantasy. The new format allows you to do all of the following:

  1. Risk-Free Bet - Lose bet, get free bet back
  2. One leg insurance SGP Risk-Free Bet - Miss one leg, get free bet
  3. Lose all legs Risk-Free Bet - Lose exactly all legs, get a free bet
  4. Win & Get Promo
  5. Bet & Get Promo
  6. Daily Fantasy Flex Payouts - Different payouts based on how many legs hit
  7. Ability to perform math to calculate a reward's value or specify the free bet's conversion%
And much more! The format is so versatile that it can likely handle many new promos that come out.
To learn more about this new format, see the below section, "Daily Fantasy". It will explain everything about the format, including tricks and shortcuts!


Daily Fantasy:

PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy are examples of Daily Fantasy sites. They are not sportsbooks.
They only offer parlays and mostly player props. There are a lot of promos that they do that are +EV.

PrizePicks calls its normal parlay's "Power Plays" and Underdog Fantasy only offers normal parlays.

PrizePicks has an interesting parlay type called "Flex Plays". Their 5-pick flex play will pay out:
10x if all 5 picks win
2x if any 4 picks win
0.4x if any 3 picks win

Because of this, flex pay essentially has a dynamic "Final Odds" based on the fair chance of your legs to hit.

For all of the Daily Fantasy parlay types, you can choose it from the Daily Fantasy DropDown list.

After  choosing a parlay type, it will populate the Final Odds Textbox with the required payout pattern for that parlay.
If for some reason there is a boost or you need to change the Flex's payout pattern, the format is:
NumberOfLegsRequiredToHit=PayoutX
And additional payout options can be separated by semi-colons.
For example, this is the PrizePicks Flex payout for a normal 5-pick Flex:
5=10x;4=2x;3=0.4x
This translates to:
if 5 picks win, you get 10x payout
if 4 picks win, you get 2x payout
if 3 picks win, you get 0.4x payout

You can also do a normal parlay that is 5 legs (like Underdog Fantasy) with a 20x payout like:
5=20x
Also, if you want it to work for any number of legs that you have and it is a normal parlay, you can simply type:
20x

Daily Fantasy can be a little confusing when getting started. If you need more help, feel free to ask for help in my CNM discord.

You can also specify American Odds in place of decimal odds. Simply write it as:
Decimal Odds: 4=5x;3=1.5x
American Odds: 4=+400;3=-200

You can also specify invidual leg odds  if you have a parlay insurance.
American Odds: 3=-500,-450,-325;2=0.7x
In the above example, you win your normal 3-way parlay if you hit all 3. You get 0.7x (70%) of your stake back if you miss just one.
This 70% represents a 70% free bet conversion.

You can also use this FinalOdds format for Win&Get and Bet&Get promos.
Example:
Bet on the Ravens vs Bengals moneyline and receive 100% of your stake as a free bet, up to $25, if you win.
Assuming the free bet value is 70% and we decide to bet on the Bengals at a -260.
We can put in the FinalOdds textbox:
1=-260;w=0.7x
OR
1=-260;w=100%*70%
This says, if we win the bet as normal, the final odds are -260. But we also receive a free bet (70%) if we also win.

Another way can use this FinalOdds format for Bet&Get promos.
Example:
Bet $50 on the Lakers vs Bucks game and receive $1, as a free bet, for every 3 pointer made.
You estimate, based on historical data, that there will be around 25 3 pointers.
So, you are estimating that you will receive, on average, a $25 free bet (at an estimated 70% conversion)
You decide to bet on the Bucks at -600 odds
You would use this in the Final Odds textbox:
1=-600;n=0.35x
OR
1=-600;n=$25/$50*70%
This says, if we win the bet as normal, the final odds are -600. And no matter what, win or lose, we estimate to receive a $25 free bet.
To get the 0.35x, we use the formula:
$FreeBet / $PrimaryWager * 70%Conversion = 0.35x
Which means, the free bet is worth 35% of our primary wager (or 0.35x).

A shortcut when doing risk-free bet promos. Instead of doing:
4=+300;3=0.7x;2=0.7x;1=0.7x;0=0.7x
You can instead do:
4=+300;r=0.7x
"r" will cover all cases  for when your bet loses.

Another shortcut is that you can put "#" as the max number of legs you have. For example:
2=+300;r=0.7x
can be  replaced with
#=+300;r=0.7x
The devigger will know that you meant the maximum number of legs (ie. all legs must hit, or winning your bet).

Have you ever bet 2 +EV bets that are mutually exclusive?
You can estimate how much more kelly you should be putting on mutually exclusive bets, if only one can hit.
Let's say you are betting on a game's moneyline and there is no chance of a tie/draw. One must hit. They are mutually exclusive.
Let's say fair value for both is exactly +100 odds. 50% chance that TeamA wins, 50% chacne that TeamB wins.
If a book offered you +150 on TeamA, the EV% would be 25%, full kelly of 16.67u (16.67% of bankroll).
If a book offered you +150 on TeamB, it'd be the same EV% and full kelly.
If you bet them both like that, you'd only be putting up 33.34% (16.67%+16.67%) of your bankroll, even though it is 100% (50%+50%) chance to hit!
To factor this in, you can devig them using mutually exclusive operator (+100^^+100) in the Leg Odds textbox.
In the Final Odds textbox, put both outcome's betting odds (+150^^+150).
The Fair Value will output as 100% chance to hit. The full kelly suggested to wager between the 2 bets would be 100u (100% of your bankroll).
To determine how much to put on each bet, take the fair value of that side (50%), divide it by the mutually exclusive fair value (100%). So, you'd want to put
50% of the 100u on TeamA and 50% of the 100u on TeamB. That means it suggests to put 50% of your bankroll on each.
I am using full kelly as an example to make it easier to see the math.
The key takeaway from this type of bet/devig is that when you bet multiple +EV bets that are mutually exclusive, the kelly wager should theoretically increase.

You can also do the same as the above for independent events (ones which can both hit).
To do that, you'd simply put t his in the Final Odds textbox:
+150||+150
See this discussion in the CNM discord for more information.


Why does the Devigger return different Final Odds for each devig method when I use "n=" in the Final Odds textbox?

Let's look at some examples of the math and see that the devigger is handling things correctly in these cases.

Let's assume we have a 50% fair hit% and simple FinalOdds of +100
This would return:
(($100 * 2) * 50% - $100) / $100 = 0% +EV
The first part of the equation ($100 * 2) is your  payout if you win. Multiplied by the chance to win (50%). Subtracting the wager cost ($100). And dividing by your primary wager  ($100). This returns 0% +EV.

Let's look at one that is more complex.
-1000/600 fair returns 86.4% hit% for multiplicative.
A simple FinalOdds of +100,
This would return:
(($100 * 2) * .864 - $100) / $100 = 72.8% +EV
Same formula as before. Math checks out, so far.

Factoring in a Bet&Get:
(($100 * 2) * .864 - $100 + $100) / $100 = 172.8% +EV
The devigger returns a correct 172.8% +EV
And it returns the correct EV% for each devig method.
And it has slight different Final Odds for each method.
However, if you also took those FinalOdds that get outputted for each devig method into a separate devigger, with those same Leg Odds, you'd get the exact same EV%. So, it may seem strange that the Final Odds would change for a Bet&Get promo based on the Hit% changing, but (unless I'm wrong lol) it is correct.


Multiplicative/Normalization/Traditional Devig Method:

- This is the normal way that we devig, but it does not take into account underdog bias. This method has a +900/-3000 outputting +968 fair odds.


Additive Devig Method:

- This is another way to devig. It helps to take into account underdog bias. This translates to a +900/-3000 outputting +1412 fair odds.
Note that there are rare instances where the fair value will be a negative percentage. This is normal and expected of the Additive devig method.


Power Devig Method:

- This is another way to devig. It exponentially takes underdog bias into account. This translates to a +900/-3000 outputting +2192 fair odds.
This method heavily leans towards heavy favorites.


Shin Devig Method:

- This is another way to devig. For Shin, 2 way markets will devig to the exact same fair odds as Additive. However, when devigging 3+ way markets, Shin will produce different fair odds than Additive.


Worst-case Devig Method:

- This method will always use the lowest implied probability of either Multiplicative or Additive or Power or Shin (set in the settings). This way you play it safe and go off of the worst-case scenerio ev%.


Weighted Average Devig Method:

- This method will always use weighted average of the implied probabilities of any of the 2 or 3 or 4 main devig methods (set in the settings). This way you can use a combination of percentages that is (hopefully) more accurate/optimal than a single devig method, and less conservative than the Worst-case Devig method.


Theoretical Hedge Method:

The Theoretical Hedge Value (THV%) is similar to HV% (Used on www.CrazyNinjaOdds.com)
The Hedge Value (or HV%) is a metric that can be directly compared to EV%.

HV% tells you the guaranteed profit (or loss) you could make if you hedged every possible combination of bets.

If a promo is for a $20 wager and the HV% is 10%, then you could hedge the promo for a guaranteed profit of $2.
If a promo is for a $20 wager and the EV% is 10%, then your expected (long-term) profit is $2.

THV% is similar to this HV% but it can sometimes differ from an HV% based on a number of factors.

If you provide multiple odds with the AVG() function, the THV% will be calculated using the best odds provided.

If the THV% is positive, you can almost guarantee there is value in your bet.
It is sort of a  "true worst-case" devig method. It was created to help be a deciding factor in questionable markets with a lot of juice.


Why Are There Different Devig Methods and Which One is Best?:

(Note: The below is based on my understanding and under the assumption the sportsbooks would do what I would do if I were them)
- Longshot bias. In order to best explain, let us see it from the point of view of a sportsbook:

Across all devig methods, let us always assume the sportsbook runs its analysis of the game and their computer spits out the true/fair odds are for the Steelers to have a 70% chance to win. This is true/fair odds and is 70% without any juice involved.
And let us also assume, for simplicity, that the total money wagered on both teams (combined) is $100. And let's assume the sportsbook has 8.3% juice in the market.
Steelers vs Browns moneyline. The sportsbook thinks the Steelers have a 70% chance to win (browns a 30% chance). We are the sportsbook and we want to make the same amount of money, no matter which team wins. We must adjust our odds/payouts based on how much money is on the Steelers vs how much money is on the Browns.

(Multiplicative):
In a perfect world, we would assume 70% of the money would go on the Steelers, 30% on the Browns.
This is the multiplicative method's way of thinking.
As a sportsbook, we would set the odds to:
-314 = 1.32X payout multiplier
+208 = 3.08X  payout multiplier
-314/+208 = 70% fair value devig multiplicative
If we know that 70% of the money is on Steelers, 30% is on the browns, that means:
If the Steelers win, we get = ($70 + $30) - ($70) * 1.32 = $7.6
the sportsbook made $7.60 off of the game/bets. $7.6/$100 = 7.6% ROI
If the Browns win, we get = ($70 + $30) - ($30) * 3.08 = $7.6
the sportsbook made $7.60 off of the game/bets. $7.6/$100 = 7.6% ROI
(Formula = ($TotalMoneyWageredOnSteelers + $TotalMoneyWageredOnBrowns) - ($TotalMoneyWageredByWinningBettors) * (PayoutMultiplierForWinningBettors)

The sportsbook adjusted the payout/odds so that they would make the same no matter which team won. As it was a 70% chance for Steelers to win and 70% of the money was on the Steelers, the sportsbook did not need to take into account longshot bias, as there was none in this case.

What if there was longshot bias and the sportsbook used the same odds?
Let's see what would happen:

Longshot bias says that more money will be placed on heavy underdogs because it's like a lottery ticket and people love risk and a chance to win it big. Because of longshot bias, in our example below, 68.46% of the money is bet on the Steelers and 31.54% is bet on the Browns.
So, more money was bet on the longshot/Browns than in our example above.

What if we don't change the odds/payouts, even though we know that more money is on the Browns?:
If Steelers win, ($68.46 + $31.54) - ($68.46) * 1.32 = $9.63
If Browns win, ($68.46 + $31.54) - ($31.54) * 3.08 = $2.85
As a sportsbook, we want to make the same profit no matter what, and maximize our longterm profit.

So, we must adjust the odds/payouts to take into account the longshot bias (and more people betting on the underdog).
As a sportsbook, we would set the odds to:
-287 = 1.35X payout multiplier
+193 = 2.93X payout multiplier
-287/193
If we know that 68.46% of the money is on Steelers, 31.54% is on the Browns, that means:
If the Steelers win, we get = ($68.46 + $31.54) - ($68.46) * 1.35 = $7.579
If the Browns win, we  get = $68.46 + $31.54) - ($31.54) * 2.93 = $7.5878
The sportsbook made the same profit and ROI% no matter which team won.

Back to our perspective as sports bettors:
We cannot see exactly how much money is wagered on either side of a bet like the sportsbooks see.
We can estimate, however, and by using the Multiplicative devig method in our first example (when there was no longshot bias), it would return the same fair value (70%). And by using the Additive devig method in our second example (when there was longshot bias), it would also return the same fair value (70%).
The right devig method depends on how much longshot bias there is in the market.

So, when is it best to use the different devig methods? It really depends. The worst-case devig method will be the most conservative in estimating longshot bias. But ideally, if we had enough data, we could estimate the longshot bias based on a number of factors such as:
market type, sportsbook, sport, game popularity, etc.
There is essentially a range of where the fair chance could be and worst-case method will give you the lowest of the estimates.
I personally prefer the worst-case method but I hope that with my new scraping site, we will eventually have enough data to analyze and determine what the true fair chance of a bet are to hit based on the factors mentioned above.


Still having trouble understanding? See this Discord post that goes more in depth here.


SGP Devig Shortcut:

This shortcut is not recommended and I will show you why.

If you do a 4-way SGP of Nuggets Moneyline and Total Points Over 235.5:
Nuggets and  Over 235.5 = +850
Nuggets and Under 235.5 = +250
Lakers and Over  235.5 = +500
Lakes and Under 235.5 = -148
850/250/500/-148

If you have the 2-way lines as:
Nuggets/Lakers moneyline = +190/-230
Over/Under 235.5 = +300/-500

Technically this would cover all outcomes:
Nuggets and  Over 235.5 = +850
Nuggets and Under 235.5 = +250
Lakers Moneyline = -230
850/250/-230

However, it is not a correct devig. Here is why:
850/250/500/-148 = 15.4% Juice
850/250/-230 = 8.8% Juice

Where did the juice go? The same juice is still on the 850/250 lines, however, we are now using a less juiced line  at -230.
850/250 = about 7.7% for the 2 legs
190/-230 = 4.2% Juice, or about 2.1% Juice for the -230 leg by itself
So, the 850/250 part of the 3-way devig shortcut has a disproportunate amount of juice compared to the -230.
The devigger cannot see that. It sees that the 3-way devig shortcut has 8.8% juice. For multiplicative, it thinks that it is split evenly.

That would be:
-230 = 2.9% Juice
850/250 = 5.86% Juice

This is uneven Juice%, compared to what a normal 4-way devig would have been. In a normal 4-way devig,  multiplicative would show the juice for each pair of legs as:
850/250 = 7.7% Juice
500/-148 = 7.7% Juice
By having it be uneven, the devigger is thrown off on multiplicative. And the same problem will also exist for all other devig methods.

Because of this mix of lines and different juice per leg compared to what the sportsbook actually used, it will lead to skewed results.

I do not recommend.


Just the Tips:

i like turtles


Patch Notes:

2/28/2022
- Added feature to allow us to specify the amount of juice in a market to calculate fair odds from that, as well as a feature to derive juice from another market.
- Changed default Kelly settings to be more normal.
- Added a cookie to save Kelly's settings
- Added some more tips

3/3/2022
- Added feature to handle mutually exclusive events (XOR)
- Added feature to handle indepdent events (OR)

3/5/2022
- Added the Combo Breaker to the site

3/7/2022
- Gave webpages titles to make them easier to switch between tabs.
- Gave feature to allow simply placing fair value into devigger, without having to place a "/".

3/11/2022
- Added the Additive devig method

3/13/2022
- Fixed a bug that caused odds to be off when using ^ and the new additive method.

3/29/2022
- Added the Worst-case devig method
- Added  the Power devig method
- Improved output of combo breaker to give player name and market type on the same line, per player.
- Fixed recursion bug that would cause Combo Breaker to crash with 4-5+ inputs. It now can handle 4-5 Players/inputs. I will improve its efficiency to handle even more inputs in the future.

4/2/2022
- Added settings to customize the Worst-case method.
- Fixed a bug in the Power Method when using the "^" feature. Works now.

4/4/2022
- Added the Weighted Average  method.

4/5/2022
- Fixed a bug where the Weighted Average method would only use Multiplicative if the Worst-case method's Multiplicative checkbox was checked.

4/11/2022
 - Improved the accuracy the of Power method. There was a bug where 295/-400, 300/-400 and 305/-400 would return non-linear fair percentages. They were very close to eachother but because of a bug in the iteration in finding an approximate "k", it would think 300/-400 was .3% more likely to hit than 295/-400. The bug is fixed and it is now more accurate.

6/12/2022
- Added the "Show EV Color Indicator" checkbox. This lets you see red for negative EV and green for positive EV.

6/14/2022
- Fixed a bug that caused it to show Leg#1 for every leg. This bug was introduced because I am working on a custom name feature for each leg (along with much more) and didn't finish it, yet.

7/10/2022
- Added "Show All" devig method. This lets you see all 3 main devig methods at the same time.
- Added the "Show Detailed Devig Info" checkbox. This can show individual leg's juice.


7/11/2022
- Added the Additive and Power method to the Combo Breaker. I created Combo Breaker before I learned of the other devig methods. Combo Breaker had multiplicative method baked-in.
- For combo breaker, added the ability to copy/paste FD one way alt lines that are formatted like, "Player Name 3+ Strikeouts". This works for things like FD strikeout alt markets.
- For combo breaker, added the ability to specify juice in the market, for any lines that are one way. To do this you can either specify the exact juice or provide a 2 way odds for the combo breaker to derive juice from, for you. Provide a line with either of these 2 formats:
juice=7.1%
juice=-172/+134

7/12/2022
- Added the Shin devig method to the devigger
- Added the Shin devig method to the devigger

8/31/2022
- Added a section to this help file called, "Why are there different devig methods and which one is best?"

9/15/2022
- Added correlation textbox/option.
- Added boost option.

9/16/2022
- Added ability to now type parlay odds in "Final Odds" textbox and the devigger will calculate  the Final Odds for you.
For example, if your parlay is for Penn State at -210 and Georgia at -400, simply type into the Final Odds box:
-210,-400
It will output -118 as the Final Odds and use those odds on the +ev calculations.

9/29/2022
- Fixed a bug in the correlation textbox's formula. It can now correctly handle 4+ legs.

10/3/2022
- Fixed a bug in Combo Breaker. It was putting too much value to the lowest alt line.
It now estimates much more accurately.

10/16/2022
- Added the Market Average AVG() function to the devigger

10/18/2022
- Fixed a  bug in the correlation textbox's formula. It should be more accurate.

10/25/2022
- Added checkbox for correlation and made it so that the correlation/boost checkboxes show/hide their sections.

10/26/2022
- Adapted the Combo Breaker to be able to handle the new FD format

11/4/2022
- Updated correlation textbox to allow for specifying which legs are correlated.
This allows for multiple correlations as well as having something like 2 legs correlated and 1 leg not correlated.

11/5/2022
- Fixed a bug in previous update that returned an error when specifying correlation as a number by itself (like 0.14)
- Added MIN and MAX functions
- Fixed bug that would cause some broken odds if a juice estimate was more than is possible in the market.
- Added Daily Fantasy feature

11/15/2022
- Added the Bottom Calibration% Textbox to the Combo Breaker. This allows you to calibrate the Calibration% so that when the Combo Number is the sum of the normal lines, it outputs a  fair value of +100 (expected for the sum of the normal lines). Then you can use that Calibration% in your actual boost.
- Added Head2Head checkbox to Combo Breaker. You can break 2 players to determine the chance that one scores more than the other.

11/16/2022
- Add Thrive Fantasy to the Daily Fantasy dropdownlist. Also organized it differently to now show the fantasy site on every item.

11/17/2022
- Added Kelly Units to the Result's Summary

12/5/2022
- Added ability to specify American Odds for Daily Fantasy Flex Play

12/9/2022
- For Combo Breaker, added a checkbox for Head2Head Ties Lose and for Head2Head Flip Player Positions.

12/15/2022
- Added Lean Devig Method option. See above for more information on it.

12/17/2022
- Renamed "Lean" to "Theoretical Hedge" as it is a better name/description of what it is.
Also set it to be disabled by default now, as to not confuse new bettors into thinking something isn't good because it is not a Theoretical Hedge.

12/23/2022
- Added the Head2Head Spread Textbox.

1/2/2023
- Fixed a bug in H2H CCC for calculating fair value where ties push. The formula I used was very close and likely many plays that were played as +EV before would still be +EV with the new formula.

1/6/2023
- Added the ability to do correlation when using daily fantasy Final Odds (like "3=2.25x;2=1.25x")

1/7/2023
- Added the INT() function
- Added the INT() function (linear interpolation). See  above about the INT() function.
- Added the ability to use the AVG/MIN/MAX/INT functions in the  correlation textbox (could be useful if needing to interpolate between 2 SGPs)
- Added a check on Final Odds to ensure if someone is trying to do a payout multiplier, that it alerts them if they are missing an 'x'
- Fixed a bug in combo breaker, where if using H2H checkbox and had an empty combo number, it would return an error (even though combo number is not used/invisible when doing H2H)


1/9/2023
- Added FB% to devigger result
- Added Win&Get and Bet&Get feature to FinalOdds textbox . See Daily Fantasy for more information on the format.
- Removed suggested Kelly Wager when the ev% is negative.
- Updated Combo Breaker's results to clarify what the results are for (now that we have many types of results like moneyline/spread/totals)

1/10/2023
- Added FinalOdds textbox Bet&Get and Win&Get expressions. See Daily Fantasy for more information on the format.
- Added the implied EV% feature. Allowing you to derive fair value from the EV% you specify.
- Added the HIT() function to allow conversion from hit% to American Odds.

1/11/2023
- Added "r=" for the Final Odds textbox. This acts as a shortcut to what was  before possible with something like "3=0.7x;2=0.7x;1=0.7x;0=0.7x" on a 4-leg parlay risk-free bet.

1/12/2023
- Added the Final Odds Format section to help explain the new format that can be used for promos and flexible payouts.

1/16/2023
- Added the "^^" operator for when you need this or that to happen on mutually exclusive events that are in separate markets.

2/7/2023
- Added the "Copy to Clipboard" button for Reddit. It is a setting you can enable at the bottom of the Devigger page.

3/19/2023
- Added ability to perform math in HIT() function. So, if something has historically occurred 18/61 times this season, you could simply type HIT(18/61) and it will be the same as HIT(29.5%), which is the same as +239 fair value.
- Added ability to perform math in the Boost textbox. So, MGM boosts the entire bet but the boosted winnings is returned as a free bet. If you have a 100% MGM boost and can convert at 70% free bet conversion, you'd check the "All" boost option, and then in the boost textbox, type: "100%*70%".

4/1/2023
- I added a checkbox to now include the Tatum factor. This will help us to avoid those boosts that look +EV at first but then you see it has Tatum in it. Happy April Fools! :D

4/8/2023
- Adjusted the help file's "Mutually Exclusive Events" section to separate them into "All-Way" and "2-Way" devigs.

4/11/2023
- Added the Multi-Line Textbox Checkbox option in the Devigger settings.
- Added the ability to write comments in the LegOdds textbox (including '//' and '/* */'.
See the above section on Multi-Line Textbox and Comments for more information.

4/20/2023
- Added the ability to write comments in the FinalOdds, Correlation and Boost textboxes. Same as the previous update, for LegOdds.

4/27/2023
- Added PrizePick's 30x flex play (some Fridays) to the Daily Fantasy dropdown list.

5/1/2023
- Comments now correctly show up in the "Copy to Reddit" text for Final Odds, Correlation and Boost textboxes.

5/4/2023
- Changed the default devig method to "Worst-case" with all 4 worst-case methods enabled. This is my recommended devig method and conservative.

5/19/2023
- Added a section in the help file that shows my reasoning to not do a 4-leg SGP devig with 3 legs, or 8-leg SGP devig with 5 legs

5/20/2023
- Added an extra decimal point to the Kelly Units Output.

5/21/2023
- Added a section for listing Devigger video tutorials, created by @TheeDegenBoosts (His Twitter and YouTube)

5/23/2023
- Added @TheeDegenBoosts' Devigger Tutorial Part 2 to the Video Tutorials Section, created by @TheeDegenBoosts (His Twitter and YouTube)

6/8/2023
- Added the Up By 2 Runs Devigger Assistant tool. This one is specific to 2+ runs.
- Created a new page for the Up By X Promos, with links to the 2 tools available for it (one for NFL, the other for MLB).
- Added an option for a "Copy Devig's URL" button.
- Added an option to include the "Devig's URL" at the bottom of the "Copy for Reddit" button's copied text.
- If you want to generate the Devig's URLs in Google Sheets or a Discord bot, you can reference the (not officially released) Devigger API's documentation here.
At the bottom of the documentation, is extra information on how to use the "autofill" system in the normal Devigger page.
- Added a red text warning if  your devig has negative juice anywhere.

6/9/2023
- Altered Reddit's Devig's URL to now use the text, "View/Edit Devig" for the link instead of showing the long URL.
- Fixed bug where when Theoretical Hedge checkbox was checked, it would incorrectly show a negative juice warning.

6/10/2023
- Updated combo breaker to be able to handle Exactly markets.

6/14/2023
- Added @TheeDegenBoosts' Devigger Tutorial Part 3 to the Video Tutorials Section, created by @TheeDegenBoosts (His Twitter and YouTube)

6/15/2023
- Added @TheeDegenBoosts' Devigger Tutorial Part 4 to the Video Tutorials Section, created by @TheeDegenBoosts (His Twitter and YouTube)

6/21/2023
- Added @TheeDegenBoosts' Devigger Tutorial Part 5 to the Video Tutorials Section, created by @TheeDegenBoosts (His Twitter and YouTube)

8/1/2023
Fixed a bug that caused the CopyDevigURL to not correctly set the boost type when the boost type of "All" was selected.

8/9/2023
- Renamed the "Copy for Reddit" button to "Copy for Discord/Reddit" since the same formatting works for both platforms.
- Discord now allows you to use masked urls to shorten a url like: [text](url)
- Added a checkbox to include/exclude the Devig's Info for the "Copy for Discord/Reddit" button. This allows you to choose to have just the masked url, just the devig's info, or both.

8/25/2023
- Changed it so that when you estimate juice% on left side of a devig (like 7%/+850), it will now display what the left side's odds would have been in the Results.

9/21/2023
- Added the ability to derive juice% of an alt-line for a book that has the same betpoints  for a 2-way line and an alt-line but the alt-line is juiced. You can then more accurately devig the other alt-lines with this derived alt-line juice%. See Juiced Tips section above.

10/9/2023
- Added the Free Bet checkbox. This enables output that is specific to you using a free bet. It shows the Kelly's recommended maximum free bet size to let ride, based on your bankroll and risk-tolerance. The Theoretical Hedge (if enabled) output will show the amount that you can guarantee if you were to hedge, with the best odds given in your devig (including AVG(), MIN(), MAX()).

11/10/2023
- Updated Combo Breaker to handle a unique pattern that only occurs on FireFox.

11/18/2023
- Improved Multi-Line textbox by making it automatically expand by hitting "Enter/Return" for a new line. This allows it to work on mobile.

11/26/2023
- Added @EVBetsMA's Combo Breaker Tutorial to the Video Tutorials Section, created by @EVBetsMA (His Twitter)

12/3/2023
- Added the ability MED() function. It is similar to AVG() but it takes the Median of a set of numbers. This helps to factor out outliers and mistake lines.

12/4/2023
- Added the ability to calculate the kelly sum of 2 bets that are mutually exclusive. See Flex Final Odds for more info.

12/8/2023
- Fixed an overflow bug in INT() function when attempting to linearly interpolate outside of the range provided.

12/15/2023
- Added ability to use historical juice%, based on the odds provided. Simply providing "/%" without a number will have the devigger estimate the juice% for you.
- Added the ability to calculate the kelly sum of 2 bets that are independent events. See Flex Final Odds for more info.

12/16/2023
- Added Enable Select Bookmarklet, which allows you to force selection on sportsbook pages that don't allow you to highlight/select their odds.
- Cleaned up the Devigger Help page a little and gave each section a url/link to easily copy.

12/22/2023
- Fixed a bug that caused decimals in American Odds input for LegOddsTextbox to glitch.

2/9/2024
- Combo Breaker can now handle an unlimited number of inputs/players/teams/lines.

2/18/2024
- The Devigger can now handle trailing "," and trailing "/" in the LegOdds Textbox. This makes it easier to move the legs of a parlay around to devig against different legs. And makes it easier to move the sides of a market around to make it easier to devig against different sides of a market. If doing this, it might be easier to use the Multiline Textbox mode in the settings. It is also able to ignore comments, so you can have your trailing "," or "/" and a comment afterwards

2/18/2024
- Discord has a bug in which %25 is not properly decoded to a "%" symbol. I have enabled a workaround for this that also works for other platforms/browsers.

2/18/2024
- Added the ability to AVG() sides of a market all within a single AVGb() (or MEDb()) function, keeping all sides from a single book together. See: Alternate Function Format

2/27/2024
- Added the "Start With Empty Fields" Checkbox. This has all input fields start off empty.

2/28/2024
- Combo Breaker can now linearly interpolate between inputs. Bottom Calibration should be rarely needed now. Inputs with large gaps are now much more accurate.

3/1/2024
- - Added the Implied Kelly feature. Allowing you to derive fair value from the Kelly Units you specify.